My dissertation chapters are:
1. The Effects of High Feed and Energy Costs on Broiler Farm Productivity in Nigeria: A Dynamic Modelling Approach (Job Market Paper).
This paper explores the heterogeneous profitability of commercial medium and large poultry enterprises facing rising input costs. Using data from Oyo State, Nigeria, we develop a discrete time, discrete state dynamic model with the options to feed, sell and restock, or sell and exit the sector each period. To parametrize the model, we rely on an extensive cross-sectional data set and a one-year weekly panel data set of farm input prices. We find significantly different optimal decisions for medium and large-scale farms. In the presence of an upward shift in feed price, while the optimal decision for medium scale farms is often to sell and exit the industry, it remains profitable for large scale firms to sell and restock. This indicates that broiler farms need a larger flock size to withstand negative input price shocks. We also explore the implication of increased energy consumption for the adoption of climate adapting technologies. Again, while large scale farms are able to withstand the additional electricity and fuel expenses from adopting these technologies, medium-scale farms are largely unable to do so. These findings reveal the importance of accounting for farm size when exploring the effect of input cost shocks in the livestock industry in developing countries. They also reveal the importance of maintaining low and stable input prices in the rapidly growing poultry industry in Nigeria and other contexts with similarly structured poultry industries.
2. Storage Decisions of Poultry Farmers in Nigeria: A Real Options Application (Dissertation Chapter).
3. Persistent Poverty among Subpopulations in the United States: Is it a Poverty Trap? (Dissertation Chapter).